AI 2027 Tracker · pllu.net

Someone is scoring the AI 2027 scenario against what actually happened. 202 predictions, 30% evaluated so far, and the running accuracy is 85%.

The most useful part is the task-horizon chart, which puts the scenario’s own curve, published METR results and capability-index extrapolations on one log scale, so you can see where the forecast sits against measurement rather than against vibes. At the time of writing the scenario’s curve implies about 10.8 hours for the July 2026 level, the best published METR figure is 14.0 hours, and the capability-index extrapolation gives 4.72 hours, which is a spread wide enough to be worth understanding before quoting any single number.